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Order backlog summaries May 2012 Download PDF

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There is a current commercial passenger and freight aircraft order backlog of some 9,400 units equivalent to 45% of the current commercial active fleet (according to our analysis of the data from Ascend Online)

Prolongation of order backlog

  • The current backlog is equivalent to more than eight years’ current production levels — the highest level the industry has seen.
  • 53% of the backlog is due for delivery by 2015.
  • There are some significant long dated orders. A third of the backlog for the A320/737 and variants are for delivery beyond 2016 (with another 3% — probably
  • speculative — that have no firm delivery dates).
  • The dated orders extend over the next 14 years to 2026 — with Lion Air, IndiGo and AirAsia extending firm orders for 737s/A320s beyond 2023.
  • There is a level of undated orders which may be deemed unlikely to be fulfilled — but this only accounts for 3% of the total backlog.

Orders by type of customer

  • The lessors account for 15% of the total order book.
  • The European Legacy, US Legacy carriers and the three Gulf super-connectors each account for around 5% of the total backlog.
  • LCCs make up 30% of the customer base. Notably only 37% of their orders are for delivery before 2016.
  • Other airlines make up 40% of the order book — and nearly 70% of their orders are for delivery by 2015.
  • The largest individual orders are from Southwest, Lion Air and AirAsia.
  • The top 25 customers account for 45% of the total backlog.

Geography

  • Over a third of the orders are from operators in the Far East and a quarter in North America — although half of the North American orders are from leasing companies.
  • Europe appears slightly under-represented with only 18% of the total backlog (and 15% of the backlog ordered by airlines).
  • Two-thirds of the European orders are for delivery before 2016. • The majority of the orders from the Middle East are for delivery after 2015.

Types on order

  • Narrowbody aircraft account for two-thirds of the aircraft on order and widebody aircraft a quarter of the total.
  • The delays in the production programmes have impacted some widebody replacement programmes, so the scale of widebody deliveries is going to be substantially higher at 250 a year than in the past decade.
  • Only a quarter of the A380/747 deliveries are scheduled for after 2015.

By manufacturer

  • Airbus appears slightly ahead in the duopoly fight — with 46% of the commercial backlog against Boeing’s 42%.
  • Boeing is slightly ahead on deliveries scheduled before 2016 — where the market shares are reversed — helped by the 787. (The A350 deliveries are expected to start in 2014 but only start to kick in reasonably from 2016).
  • Substantially all Embraer’s orders are for delivery in the next three years.
ORDERS BY CUSTOMER
ORDERS BY CUSTOMER
  2012- 2016- 2020-      
  2015 2020 2026 Total    
Southwest Airlines 141          
142 64 347 3.71%
Lion Air 64 169 112 345 3.69%  
AirAsia 59 92 124 275 2.94%  
Emirates Airline 108 128 - 236 2.52%  
IndiGo 44 109 66 219 2.34%  
Aeroflot 102 86 16 204 2.18%  
ILFC 41 147 - 188 2.01%  
Qatar Airways 63 114 10 187 2.00%  
Norwegian 41 132 8 181 1.93%  
GECAS 93 66 - 159 1.70%  
China Eastern Airlines 129 18 - 147 1.57%  
American Airlines 101 42 - 143 1.53%  
Jetstar 51 73 15 139 1.48%  
CIT Aerospace 70 66 - 136 1.45%  
Aviation Capital Group 93 37 4 134 1.43%  
LAN Airlines 87 45 - 132 1.41%  
China Southern Airlines 125 5 - 130 1.39%  
Not Known 109 17 - 126 1.35%  
United Airlines 61 64 - 125 1.34%  
JetBlue Airways 45 68 10 123 1.31%  
Air China 90 24 5 119 1.27%  
Delta Air Lines 50 56 12 118 1.26%  
TAM Linhas Aereas 58 54 - 112 1.20%  
Spirit Airlines 29 62 13 104 1.11%  
ALAFCO 7 50 42 99 1.06%  
Other 277 3,362 1,690 82 5,134 54.84%  
TOTAL 5,223 3,556 583 9,362 100%  
             
ORDERS BY OPERATOR AREA
ORDERS BY OPERATOR AREA
  2012- 2016- 2020-      
  2015 2020 2026 Undated Total  
Africa 150 36 - 8 194 2%
Asia Pacific 1,880 1,245 360 11 3,496 37%
Europe 1,130 504 47 28 1,709 18%
Latin America 366 267 13 4 650 7%
and Caribbean
           
Middle East 376 405 59 49 889 9%
North America 1,043 1,070 104 53 2,270 24%
Unknown 77 13 - 104 194 2%
TOTAL 5,022 3,540 583 257 9,402 100%
  53% 38% 6% 3% 100%  
             
ORDERS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE
ORDERS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE
  2012- 2016- 2020-      
  2015 2020 2026 Undated Total  
Regional Jet 369 199 44 31 643 7%
737/A320 3,164 2,039 488 179 5,870 62%
Other 228 251 17 4 500 5%
single aisle
           
Widebody 1,067 989 34 37 2,127 23%
Large 193 62 - 6 261 3%
(747/A380)
           
TOTAL 5,021 3,540 583 257 9,401 100%
ORDERS BY MANUFACTURER
ORDERS BY MANUFACTURER
  2012- 2016- 2020-      
  2015 2020 2026 Undated Total  
               
               
Airbus 2,122 1,806 310 79   4,317 46%
Boeing 2,302 1,284 212 143   3,941 42%
COMAC 101 194 17 -   312 3%
Embraer 184 26 - 17   227 2%
Bombardier 109 62 - 14   185 2%
(Canadair)  
             
Sukhoi 133 27 - -   160 2%
Irkut - 84 44 -   128 1%
Corporation  
             
Mitsubishi 8 57 - -   65 1%
Antonov 51 - - -   51 1%
Ilyushin 10 - - -   10 0%
Tupolev 2 - - 4   6 0%
TOTAL 5,022 3,540 583 257   9,402 100%
               
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