IATA 
Slashed Outlook — May 2026

What a difference a few months can make! IATA’s semi-annual publication — Global Outlook for Aviation- in December 2025 showed optimism that 2026 would add further momentum to the industry’s fortunes and generate another record year for profitability (see Aviation Strategy, Dec 2025). The latest issue now expects operating profits and net income to halve in 2026.

Although by no means as existential a crisis as the COVID-19 pandemic, the trade body propounds that the industry has been hit with a massive setback. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February following Trump’s decision to wage war against Iran has, it states, triggered “an oil-and-refinery shock without modern precedent”.