US Tourism
Downturn
Jan/Feb 2026
The USA did a good job at discouraging tourist visitors in 2025. Preliminary figures for December from the Washington-based International Trade Administration (ITA) show that the number of “overseas” visitors (ie all international visitors save those from Canada and Mexico) fell by 1.3% year on year giving a full year total of 34.3m, 2.5% below the prior year levels and 15% below the previous peak in 2019. The trend continues with another 4% decline in January 2026.
The ITA ironically relies on Statistics Canada and Mexico’s INEGI respectively for the arrivals by air and land for the data from the countries bordering the US. The two normally account for 50% of visitors to the US. These numbers are not yet available for December or January. For the the eleven months to November total international visitor arrivals had declined by 5.5% from prior year levels.
And 2025 was a year that, according to preliminary figures from the UN’s World Tourism Organization, saw a global year-on-year increase in international tourist arrivals of 4% to 1.52bn — firmly exceeding 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic. International tourist receipts it estimates grew by 5-6% in real terms to $1.9trn. North America, it noted, was one of the few regions that registered a decline.
We show the monthly progression by major regions in the charts.
Mexico has held up reasonably well, but Canadians have reacted aggressively against the Trump Administration’s tariffs and the suggestions of annexing a 51st state and voted with their feet. For most of 2025, Canadian visitors by surface transport have been 30-40% below prior year levels; by air some 15% down; and in total 25% below.
Figures from Statistics Canada (see chart), while slightly at odds in detail with those from ITA, seem to confirm that Canadians have forsaken their neighbour to explore the Caribbean, Europe and Far East or decide (supported by discounts from the Canada Strong campaign) to vacation within Canada.
The numbers of visitors from Western Europe, the next largest source, have also been weak down by 3.7% for the year as a whole. Those arriving from the UK and Italy have held up reasonably well, but those from Germany and France were well down by 11% and 7% respectively. The numbers of visitors from Denmark fell by 24%.
It is intriguing to tie this in with the data from the DoT’s Form 41. From mid-year 2025 there appears to have been an accelerating decline in the rate of growth of passengers carried by non US airlines on International routes. However, International passengers account for only 12% of the US airline market.
As exports go, tourism may not be a priority to the administration in Washington. But in 2024 it is said to have accounted for 7-9% of total exports of goods and services (and 22% of services exports).
The USA is the third largest tourist destination country in the world. And there should be enough over the next few years to encourage a resumption of growth in visitors. As the main host nations of the FIFA World Cup, it should be an automatic draw for hoardes of fans (assuming the teams can get visas, and the stadiums can get the money to plan security). This year is also the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence; and it’s the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the iconic 2,448-mile Route 66 from Chicago to California. And then in 2028 there should be the summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
The WTO is expecting continued modest 3-4% growth in tourist arrivals in 2026. Overall 58% of its “Panel of Experts” foresee better or much better tourism results and only 11% expecting a worse outcome. But of the respondents to that survey in the Americas, only 37% appear optimistic, while 26% forecast a worse, and 2% a much worse environment.
(year on year % ch)
Note: W Europe figures heavily affected by timing of Easter (March in 2024; April in 2025).
(Monthly passengers y-y % change)
