US Majors: Reasonable Financials but Consumers Doubtful — February 2026

For the big three US network airlines, 2025 was a year that did not quite live up to optimistic expectations. Consumer sentiment showed a marked decline on the inauguration of the new administration, and overall market demand was affected by the Trump tariff roller-coaster. A fatal American Eagle crash into the Potomac in January, and a Delta Connection crash on arrival in Toronto in February might not have helped.

Then there was a six-week government shut-down from the beginning of October with severe knock-on effects for the industry as air traffic controllers and TSA security worked without pay (or didn’t, and called in sick) leading to widespread flight disruptions and an FAA-mandated 10% cut to schedules at major airports. For the year as a whole, total domestic passenger numbers fell by 1.3% year on year — unusual in the absence of a technical recession. US GDP grew by 2.1% over the year, but the domestic passenger revenues of the top three carriers grew by a mere 1%.