The 2026 European Aviation Outlook: What Markets Are Getting Right (And Wrong) — December 2025

For most of the past three years, valuation has been anchored to recovery: traffic returning, balance sheets repairing, and capacity rebuilding. That chapter is now largely closed. In 2026, the market’s frame shifts from “reopening” to “steady state”. This matters because steady states are where investors decide what is structural and what is temporary.

For leadership teams, this is a subtle but important change. They are no longer being priced against 2019 or 2022. Companies will need to provide a confident outlook of what “normal”aviation looks like in Europe. The narratives forming now will provide the basis for multiples for the remainder of this cycle.