The Path to Net Zero:
Paved with Good Intentions — June 2023

May saw the publication from the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of its annual Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update. For the first time, it said, it is more likely than not that global temperatures in the next few years will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The main reason for the prognostication is that the Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation is once again approaching a warming phase, the El Niño, having been in its cooling phase (La Niña) since 2020. The recent peak in global temperature anomalies, according to data from Berkeley Earth (see chart), was in 2016 when temperatures were 1.37°C above the average for 1850-1900. That was towards the end of an extended El Niño episode that lasted from 2014-2016.