There may be Trouble Ahead:
US Airlines into a Downturn? — April 2025

First quarter results from the major US airlines disappointed the markets: all highlighted weakening domestic demand and, amid fears of a possible recession, removed full year guidance, though they still expect to be profitable.

2025 had started positively — until that is (although none of the airlines dare say it) the installation of the new Administration in Washington. To quote Ed Bastian, Delta’s CEO: “February and March reflected a much more challenging macro environment than anyone initially planned for. Coming into 2025, we were positioned for another year of strong growth. However, given broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled. The impact has been most pronounced in domestic and specifically in the main cabin, with softness in both consumer and corporate travel.” Equally Southwest saw a sudden shift: January load factors were down a couple of points, but the other two months of the quarter showed a 5.5pt decline.