Future Size
and Shape — March 2020

What will the aviation industry look like when it finally emerges from the existential crisis of the Coronavirus pandemic? At the moment that is an unanswerable question, and depends so much on how long the world’s economy remains stalled, the world’s population stays in lock-down and borders stay closed. There is a distinct possibility that it will change beyond recognition: we can only speculate.

Politically, aviation is of strategic national importance. Commercial airlines themselves account for 1% of GDP, but there are huge swathes of the economy that depend on aviation: travel, tourism, hospitality, let alone trade and global business contacts and suppliers. The total economic effect including direct, indirect and induced impacts, has been estimated at around 3.5%-4% of global GDP. This rises to and estimated 8%-10% of GDP when taking catalytic impacts into account.