Cookie Consent

This site uses cookies for functionality. To see our cookie policy click here.

If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with this.

Market balance: lessors squeezed March 2002 Download PDF

Cloud Image

Listed opposite are the 1,274 jets officially scheduled for delivery this year, according to ACAS. This is about 300–400 more than is needed to retain the current state of imbalance in the aircraft market, according to Aviation Strategy’s analysis (in the February 2002 issue, we estimated the 2001 average surplus at 11% in 2001, rising to 14% average this year).

The delivery schedule is dominated by US carriers, both Majors and their regional affiliates, and the lessors. The lessors — ILFC, Gecas, CIT/Tyco, Pembroke, etc. account for 220 of the aircraft to be delivered, about half of which have confirmed lessees.

The lessors may be facing a painful squeeze at the moment. The manufacturers are pushing them to take the scheduled aircraft in order to keep their production lines open. But the lessors are failing to win business from the fast–expanding low–cost sector.

Ryanair, having trawled the second–hand market for suitable 737s, finally opted for a very acceptable deal with Boeing. EasyJet, Go and JetBlue are also going mostly directly to the manufacturers.

Marketing to the European flag–carriers or the US Majors is an equally difficult proposition at the moment.

Traffic is coming back quite well with the effect that load factors based on the post- September 11 reduced capacity are looking rather strong. For example, AEA intra- European load factors were up 2.1 points in January, the North Atlantic was up 6.1 points and the Europe–Far East was up 2.4 points. For the US airlines, load factors were up 0.7 points domestically in January, while North Atlantic was up 2.3 points and the Pacific 6.9 points.

But these carriers have plenty of surplus capacity There is already talk of parked aircraft being recommissioned, aircraft that were available for sale or lease being taken off the market and of postponed deliveries from 2001 now being accepted. The current depressed level of yield affords little possibility of a return to profitability for most carriers, but marketing departments are promoting the traditional idea of market share gains.

All this means that the lessors will be left holding surplus inventories of aircraft throughout 2002 and into 2003. And lease rates will remain at bargain levels — around $200,000/month for a modern A320, around $100,000/month for a 737–400.

SCHEDULED 2002 DELIVERIES
SCHEDULED 2002 DELIVERIES
Customer 717 737 747 757 767 777 A600 A319 A320 A321 A330 A340 CRJ 135 140 145 328JET Total
ILFC   24 2 1 1 15   12 18 10 14 2           99
Northwest     2 7       22 1   0   34         66
GECAS   19 1   4 0   13 7 1 4   13         62
Continental Express                           12   39   51
Atlantic Coast Airlines                         20       26 46
American   17   8 4 6                       35
Comair                         33         33
Continental   14   12 4 1                       31
Skywest                         31         31
American Eagle                         9   19     28
Delta   25     2 1                       28
CASC   22 1 0           2               25
Mesa Air Group                         10     15   25
Air Wisconsin                         21         21
Southwest   21                               21
CIT Leasing   5   0       5 2 2 5             19
Qantas   15 2               1             18
American Trans Air   12   5                           17
Atlantic Southeast                         17         17
JetBlue                 16                 16
ANA         7 5     3     0           15
Air France     1     3     2 5 3             14
Asiana     3     5       2 4             14
British Airways               1 11 2               14
LanChile                 12     2           14
UPS             14                     14
Pembroke Capital 13                                 13
SAS   3               5 2 3           13
Korean Air   4 3     2         3             12
Lufthansa     1                 0 11         12
Ryanair   12                               12
Varig   6     4 2                       12
Lufthansa Cityline                         10         10
Others/undisclosed (94) 11 107 18 3 10 24 3 28 56 21 12 6 33 32 13 25 14 416
Grand total 24 306 34 36 36 64 17 81 128 50 48 13 242 44 32 79 40 1,274

Download PDF
×