Iran War: The Gentler Scenario — February 2026

There seem to be two basic scenarios for the development of the Iranian war, which alas depend on what is going on in President Trump’s head.

Escalation: US troops on the ground in Kharg Island, intensified bombing of Iran and retaliation by Iran and its proxies on Israel and the Gulf Arab states, complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and pipeline attacks, while Houthis attack in the Red Sea. The consequences for the global economy and political stability are simply unknowable, and the implications for the airline industry seem irrelevant.