Coughs and sneezes spread diseases and
depress airlines — February 2020

The past twelve years since the global financial crisis has seen the longest continuous uptrend in the aviation cycle, with growth rates well above the long term average. This has led some commentators to say that is time for a correction. But as usual a correction to stability in this industry comes from an extraneous external event, be it political, financial or — in this case — viral. Will the effects of the novel coronovirus epidemic that has developed with such rapidity over the Chinese New Year period have a lasting effect on the aviation industry?

Much of the press commentary in the past few weeks has concentrated on comparison with the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) pandemic in 2003 which had such a deleterious effect on air traffic demand, primarily in Asia.