Boeing and Airbus orders 2015 Jan/Feb 2016

Airbus beat Boeing in the annual PR race for orders in 2015. In the year it achieved announced net sales of 1,036 aircraft (after allowing for cancellations and conversions) down from 1,456 in 2014 compared with the Seattle-based manufacturer's 769 (half the previous year's 1,432). Total industry net orders are estimated to have totalled 2,193 in the year down from a peak of 3,698 in 2014.

Airbus gained from two particularly large orders in the narrowbody segment. Indigo, the indian LCC,  put in an order for 250 A320s and Wizz Air for another 110 of the type. Total A320 orders (neo and ceo) amounted to just short of 900 units. On top of this were net orders for 140 A330s, net cancellations of 3 A350s and a mere net two new A380 orders.

Boeing meanwhile received net new orders for 588 737s, 49 767Fs (from FedEx), 58 777s (including ten each from Qatar and United) and 71 787s.

On deliveries however, Boeing outshone Airbus with an overall production of 762 aircraft against 635. On narrowbodies the two were evenly matched delivering 495 737s and 491 A320s respectively (equivalent to around 40 aircraft a month each).

Overall, the outstanding industry backlog is estimated at nearly 14,700 aircraft to be delivered from 2016. This is up by 400 units from the end of 2014 and represents some nine years of current production.  The backlog schedule of deliveries suggest production levels of around 1,600 aircraft a year for the next four years.

In February the doyen of equipment forecasting, Ed Greenslet, published his Airline Monitor update of long term projections. Controversially, he has brought forward his expectation of the next industry downturn from 2021 to 2018, adding in an assumption that with low oil prices there will be a lower rate of retirement of older equipment, and that the combination of slower growth in China, collapse in commodity prices and US Dollar strength will have a material impact on demand.

As a result, his new forecasts suggest that 2015 will be the peak for aircraft deliveries in this cycle. Moreover he is suggesting that total deliveries over the next few years may be less than those suggested by the order backlog, implying that the manufacturers' plans to build production rates (particularly of the narrowbodies) may be mistaken.