Aviation Strategy

Economic and aviation cycles: Are we at the peak yet? — December 2019

After an unprecedented eleven years of above-trend growth in the airline industry there are signs of demand weakness emerging that might give support to those who think it is time for a slowdown. The IMF in its October World Economic Outlook again downgraded its estimate for GDP growth in 2019 — by 30 basis points — to 3.0%, noting that the pace of economic activity remains weak and pointing out that the momentum in manufacturing has fallen to levels not seen since the global financial crisis. An uptick to 3.5% in 2020 is expected, however. ……

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