2019: Cyclical and
Regulatory turning points — December 2018

Ten years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the consequent Global Financial Crisis, and it seems that there is no end in sight to a prolonged upturn. The IMF in its October World Economic Outlook forecasts global GDP growth continuing at around 3.6%-3.7%. IATA in its biannual airline forecast update, published in December, suggests that 2019 will see another year of above trend growth in the industry and yet another year of healthy profitability. 

But both hint that there may be an increasing possibility of surprises on the downside. The IMF particularly remarks that expansion has become less balanced between regions and may have peaked in some major economies — and particularly the US. It points to growth rates falling over the next two years as the Trump inspired fiscal stimuli unwind and his trade war with China begins to bite.