Manufacturing Trends Jul/Aug 2014

Ed Greenslet has produced an intriguing analysis of commercial aircraft manufacturing trends in his Airline Monitor by tracking total sales using estimates of actual prices realised for delivered aircraft (rather than list prices). Looking at the overall trends, two things stand out. First, the steady rise of Airbus to a more or less equal position with Boeing. Second, with $97bn delivery value last year, the current peak dwarfs previous cyclical highs. 2014 and 2015 are likely to be higher still.

The analysis also reveals the dependence of the two manufacturers on their core products. For Boeing this has been the 737, accounting for 40% of sales over the past 20 years, and the 777, accounting for 29%. Now, of course, both these types are being replaced by the 737MAX and the somewhat problematic 787.

For Airbus the A320 Family (A318 through to the A321) has accounted for about 53% of its commercial revenue, which emphasises the importance of the A320neo project. The A330 is the other mainstay of the Airbus portfolio, with 27% of sales; again a neo version is planned, while the A350 program continues to suffer delays. The A380, despite its high profile, has only accounted for 6% of revenues so far.